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Monday, June 04, 2012

Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Tuesday June 5, 2012



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Dow 30 (Diamonds-DIA) controls the direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (Spider-SPY)



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Monday 6-4-12 DJIA Closed: 12101.46 -17.11 vs. 12118.57 -274.88 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12587.11 -52.63 vs. 12639.74 -54.76 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -3.86% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -4.12% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)

Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning

Tuesday June 5, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."

MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Tuesday: 32%
DJIA Past 51 weeks: 51 Tuesdays, 61% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: June 5th has been "Up" 52% of the time.

DJIA Trend "Change" to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)

DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Unch 53 vs. 53 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)

Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)

Dow 30 + DIA: Unch#3 5 Up vs. 26 Down (+0 vs. +0 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 123.65D vs. 21-day 125.72D Spread= -2.07 vs. Prior -2.09 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Unch 13% vs Prior 13% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11)
DJIA Linear Regression: Unch 1.15 vs. Prior 1.15 (Historic: High +1.15 6-1-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Unch 23% vs. Prior 23% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Current 0.8% vs. Prior 0.9% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 15 vs. Prior day 21 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 8 vs. Prior day 9 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 10 vs. Prior day 12 (High 100 / Low 0)

DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -979 vs. Prior day -928 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)

DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12639.74 / Intermediate Term 12833.72 / Breakout 13027.70

DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12587.11 / Intermediate Term 12366.85 / Breakdown 12146.60

Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +33 vs. Previous day +44 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: BULLISH Current +62 vs. Previous day +64 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish

United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: Neutral Current -43 vs. Previous day -58 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current +6 vs. Previous day -3 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -51 vs. Previous day -57 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 1.07 vs. Previous day 1.44 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current 1.25 vs. Previous day 2.27 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)

McClellan Oscillator: Current -125.49 vs. -127.93 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94

Summation Index: Current -684.48 vs. -558.99 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)

NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -10.50% vs. Prior -10.13%, Annual ROC +0.42% vs. Prior +0.75% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)

Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -32 vs. Previous day -34 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02

Institutional Money Flow: Unch#3 16% vs. Previous day 16% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%

Institutional Demand: Current 40% vs. Previous day 39% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%

Institutional Inventory: Current 24% vs. Previous day 25% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.41% vs. Previous day -0.44% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%

Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Current 22% vs. Previous day 23% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0%

Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 28.9% vs. Previous day 29.3% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)

SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Rose Current Trend -30 vs. Yesterday -39 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.10 vs. -2.06 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Rose Current Trend -53 vs. Yesterday -62 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.34 vs. -4.22 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Fell Current Trend -37 vs. Yesterday -36 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -3.43 vs. -1.70 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Unch Current Trend -37 vs. Yesterday -37 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.50 vs. -3.51 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.50)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Rose Current Trend -34 vs. Yesterday -42 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -2.96 vs. -3.17 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Rose Current Trend -18 vs. Yesterday -21 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.07 vs. -2.15 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.15)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Rose Current Trend +2 vs. Yesterday -6 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.35 vs. -1.28 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Rose Current Trend -19 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -2.59 vs. -2.68 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Rose Current Trend -35 vs. Yesterday -42 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.05 vs. -3.98 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 80 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.

Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 31U vs. Previous day 16D (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 61D vs. Previous day 78U (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Current -.21 vs. Previous day -.20 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.91 vs. Previous day -1.74 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.54 vs. Previous day -1.45 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Unch +27 vs. Previous day +27 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Current -162 vs. Previous day -151 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)

DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 130.31D, 120.69D (Spread: 9.62) vs. Previous day 130.66D, 121.27D (Spread: 9.39) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.

DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Current 124.75D vs. 125.49D the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.

DIA ATR 14: Current 1.53 vs. Previous day 1.56 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Monday's Actual DIA Range: 1.09 vs. 1.51 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)

Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.01 vs. 1.13 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)

DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 1.5 / 30-day: 1.0, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)

Good luck and good trading Tuesday!

Exchanged Traded Fund DIA Monday Forecast








Below is an example of the MktMetrics program using DIA ETF current information. Our pattern recognition algorithmic trading program forecasts the 1,000 most actively traded stocks, ETFs and currencies, posted by 8:00pm ET, the night before next day's trading. Get a "Forever FREE" subscription to www.MktMetrics.com and begin to improved your trading results today! (No credit card required, it's now "Forever FREE!")

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Details for DIA Diamonds (Dow 30 Exchange Traded Fund)

Today's Date: 06/04/12
Last Updated: 06/01/12

06/01/12 Final Numbers
(Open) 122.12
(High) 122.42
(Low) 120.91
(Close) 121.01
(Range) 1.51

DIA Monday Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 121.64
Today's Predicted High: 121.58
Today's Predicted Low: 120.45
Today's Proposed Range: 1.13
Buy/Sell Rating: Sell

Five Considerations (Today vs. Yesterday)
Price Internal Strength: Negative 13 Down from 20
Volume Internal Strength: Positive 1.90/1.18 Up
Current Trend: Negative -78 Down from -57
Demand Factor: 53 Down from 65
Stock Volatility: 2.27 Down from 2.29

Predict DIA Upside and Downside Potential
06/01/12 12:45 Close: 121.54
Upside Potential: 121.75
Downside Potential: 119.49

Extreme Trading Conditions: Levels 1-4

Predicted Block Trading Resistance Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 123.33
2. 123.43
3. 124.56
4. 124.87

Predicted Block Trading Support Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 119.97
2. 119.68
3. 118.59
4. 118.49

DIA 8-KEY MOVING AVERAGES
8 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 124.15
21 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 126.24
30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 127.70
42 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.22
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.72
65 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.08
30 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE = 125.61
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 122.36

Nightly Analysis Update
DJIA Probability of Being Up Monday: 94%
DJIA Trend: Falling 13%
DJIA Momentum: Falling 23%
DJIA Outlook: Bearish 23% Falling
Stock Market Outlook: Bearish 29.3% Falling

Good luck and good trading today!

This Week's Key Calendar Earnings and Economic Events:
"The Fed's in Focus with the Beige Book, Bernanke on Deck"

Monday
•The week kicks off with an update on factory orders. Dollar General (DG) and Shuffle Master (SHFL) are due to step into the earnings confessional.

Tuesday
•Tuesday features the ISM non-manufacturing index. Companies on tap to report earnings include JA Solar Holdings (JASO), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), and Ulta Salon (ULTA).

Wednesday
•The revised nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs data for the first quarter, the Fed's Beige Book for May, and the regularly scheduled crude inventories report will hit the Street on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors will get a chance to reflect on earnings results from Analogic (ALOG), Men's Wearhouse (MW), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), and Vail Resorts (MTN).

Thursday
•Thursday's round-up will include weekly jobless claims and the most recent consumer credit report. Ben Bernanke will also speak at 10:00 a.m. before the Joint Economic Committee. Wall Street can expect earnings reports from J.M. Smucker (SJM) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU).

Friday
•The week concludes with updates on the trade deficit and wholesale inventories. Benihana Inc. (BNHN) and Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) will wrap up the week's slate of quarterly earnings.

Privacy Policy:
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc. is the parent company of MktMetrics.com and respects the privacy of your email address and will not give or sell your email address to any 3rd party. Your email address is used only to provide updates and information from its Founder and CEO Douglas Gale, Gmail Address: jdg8119@gmail.com, which complies fully with the federal CAN-SPAM Act of 2003. You may unsubscribe from receiving emails from us at any time, simply by notification to this email address.

Sunday, June 03, 2012

Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Monday June 4, 2012



Corporate Logo:
Dow 30 (Diamonds-DIA) controls the direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (Spider-SPY)



Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com

Next Day's Advance Market Decisions blog #4,381 RSS now to GOOGLE Reader:
http://feeds.feedburner.com/NextDaysAdvanceMarketDecisions

"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.

Subscribe to www.MktMetrics.com - See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks. (No credit card required, it's now "Forever FREE!")

Friday 6-1-12 DJIA Closed: 12118.57 -274.88 vs. 12393.45 -26.41 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12639.74 -54.76 vs. 12694.50 -42.19 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -4.12% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -2.37% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)

Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning

Monday June 4, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."

MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Monday: 94%
DJIA Past 55 weeks: 47 Mondays, 47% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: June 4 has been "Up" 59% of the time.

DJIA Trend "Change" to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)

DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Current 53 vs. 65 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)

Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)

Dow 30 + DIA: Unch#2 5 Up vs. 26 Down (+0 vs. +0 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 124.15D vs. 21-day 126.24D Spread= -2.09 vs. Prior -2.16 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Current 13% vs Prior 16% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11)
DJIA Linear Regression: Current 1.15 vs. Prior 1.14 (Historic: High +1.15 6-1-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Current 23% vs. Prior 29% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Current 0.9% vs. Prior 1.3% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 21 vs. Prior day 49 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 9 vs. Prior day 17 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 12 vs. Prior day 58 (High 100 / Low 0)

DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -928 vs. Prior day -731 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)

DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12694.50 / Intermediate Term 12888.30 / Breakout 13082.10

DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12639.74 / Intermediate Term 12418.52 / Breakdown 12197.30

Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +44 vs. Previous day +31 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: BULLISH Current +64 vs. Previous day +45 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish

United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: BEARISH Current -58 vs. Previous day -54 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current -3 vs. Previous day -38 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -57 vs. Previous day -65 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 1.44 vs. Previous day 0.96 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current 2.27 vs. Previous day 2.29 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)

McClellan Oscillator: Current -127.93 vs. -30.16 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94

Summation Index: Current -558.99 vs. -431.06 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)

NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -10.13% vs. Prior -11.95%, Annual ROC +0.75% vs. Prior +2.34% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)

Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -34 vs. Previous day -29 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02

Institutional Money Flow: Unch#2 16% vs. Previous day 16% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%

Institutional Demand: Current 39% vs. Previous day 46% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%

Institutional Inventory: Current 25% vs. Previous day 33% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.44% vs. Previous day -0.33% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%

Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Current 23% vs. Previous day 24% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0%

Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 29.3% vs. Previous day 36.8% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)

SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)

SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Fell Current Trend -39 vs. Yesterday -30 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.06 vs. -1.60 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Fell Current Trend -62 vs. Yesterday -58 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.22 vs. -2.36 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Fell Current Trend -36 vs. Yesterday -29 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.70 vs. -1.56 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Fell Current Trend -37 vs. Yesterday -26 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -3.51 vs. -1.19 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.37)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Fell Current Trend -42 vs. Yesterday -30 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -3.17 vs. -1.35 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Fell Current Trend -21 vs. Yesterday -7 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.15 vs. +0.10 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.15)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Rose Current Trend -6 vs. Yesterday -7 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.28 vs. -0.06 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Fell Current Trend -24 vs. Yesterday -13 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.68 vs. -0.42 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Fell Current Trend -42 vs. Yesterday -25 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -3.98 vs. -0.72 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 80 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.

Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 16D vs. Previous day 52U (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 78U vs. Previous day 47U (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Unch -.20 vs. Previous day -.01 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.74 vs. Previous day -1.52 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.45 vs. Previous day -1.37 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Current +27 vs. Previous day +35 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Current -151 vs. Previous day -87 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)

DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 130.66D, 121.27D (Spread: 9.39) vs. Previous day 131.28D, 121.74U (Spread: 9.54) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.

DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Current 125.49D vs. 125.92N the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.

DIA ATR 14: Current 1.56 vs. Previous day 1.47 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Friday's Actual DIA Range: 1.51 vs. 1.73 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)

Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.13 vs. 1.45 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)

DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 1.5 / 30-day: 1.0, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)

Good luck and good trading Monday!

Weekly Stocks in Review- Special Situation Stocks








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"Weekly Stocks in Review" is a list of selected "Special Situation Stocks" that as of Friday's Close, appear to have either "Upside" or "Downside" Potential, at this juncture.

The lists below are subject to "Conditions Present" during real time trading:

"Upside Potential Special Situation Stocks & ETFs, THIS WEEK"
Symbols:
AUY, FXP, GET, GOLD, NSRGY, OGE, OPTR, POWL, SCVL, SLXP, STR, VIVO, VRTX, WSO.

"Downside Potential Special Situation Stocks & ETFs, THIS WEEK"
Symbols:
FOSL, CSCO, JPM, MCD, SNCR, TBF, HYG, PCLN, ATI, BP, DELL, EZPW, GS, JBL, PWE.

Caveat: The stocks listed above are considered to be "highly speculative" because they are at an "inflection point" which could go up or down, depending upon the current trading environment and their own special situation. It is imperative for you to do your homework first and then make your own decision, using risk management procedures.

This Week's Key Calendar Earnings and Economic Events:
"The Fed's in Focus with the Beige Book, Bernanke on Deck"

Monday
•The week kicks off with an update on factory orders. Dollar General (DG) and Shuffle Master (SHFL) are due to step into the earnings confessional.

Tuesday
•Tuesday features the ISM non-manufacturing index. Companies on tap to report earnings include JA Solar Holdings (JASO), FuelCell Energy (FCEL), and Ulta Salon (ULTA).

Wednesday
•The revised nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs data for the first quarter, the Fed's Beige Book for May, and the regularly scheduled crude inventories report will hit the Street on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors will get a chance to reflect on earnings results from Analogic (ALOG), Men's Wearhouse (MW), Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), and Vail Resorts (MTN).

Thursday
•Thursday's round-up will include weekly jobless claims and the most recent consumer credit report. Ben Bernanke will also speak at 10:00 a.m. before the Joint Economic Committee. Wall Street can expect earnings reports from J.M. Smucker (SJM) and Lululemon Athletica (LULU).

Friday
•The week concludes with updates on the trade deficit and wholesale inventories. Benihana Inc. (BNHN) and Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY) will wrap up the week's slate of quarterly earnings.

-----------------------------------------

www.MktMetrics.com has been serving Institutional Investors, Hedge Funds and High Net Worth Individuals since March 2005. Its founder, Douglas Gale, has been a Securities Trader and Professional Money Manager since 1976 and a former technology vendor to Schwab CyberTrader. Minimum account size to manage is $250,000. Its focus is on the Dow 30 stocks, Dow 30 ETF (DIA) and Special Situations.
Next Day's Advance Market Decisions:
"Not always right, just very seldom wrong."

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Disclaimer:
The information and data contained in this site was obtained from independent research and development believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, constitutes a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Stocks and stock options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. This site is not a solicitation of an offer to buy shares in any fund whose performance is provided in this site. Such an offer can be solicited only by a fund directly or its agent.

Saturday, June 02, 2012

Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Analysis Saturday June 2, 2012







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The 80 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Foreign Currencies, including their Current Trend, Rating and Demand Factor
Note: A "+" or a "-" announces a change in the overall rating of the ETF or Currency selected. (Often a good time for entry or exit decision, respectively.)

Symbol: Trend +/- vs Last Week (Historic: High / Low) Rating+/- Demand Factor 100-0

1. Diamonds-Dow 30
DIA: -.78 vs Last week: -.49 (High .99 / Low -1.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 53-
2. S&P 500 Large-Cap
SPY: -.85 vs Last week: -.59 (High .93 / Low -1.88) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 62-
3. S&P 400 Mid-Cap
MDY: -.92 vs Last week: -.52 (High 1.32 / Low -2.35) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 87-
4. Russell 2000 Small-Cap
IWM: -.55 vs Last week: -.38 (High .83 / Low -1.14) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 51-
5. Nasdaq 100 Large Growth
QQQ: -.55 vs Last week: -.45 (High .68 / Low -.85) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 54-
6. Direxion Daily Large Cap Bull 3X Shares
BGU: -1.22 vs Last week: -.84 (High 1.19 / Low -2.06) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 71-
7. Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X Shares
BGZ: +.52 vs Last week: +.35 (High 1.01 / Low -.86) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 43+
8. Chicago Mercantile Exchange
CME: -.30 vs Last week: -.69 (High 4.84 / Low -7.92) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 85+
9. Ultra Dow 30 Power Shares
DDM: -.77 vs Last week: -.49 (High 1.00 / Low -1.54) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73-
10. Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares
DIG: -.67 vs Last week: -.42 (High .93 / Low -2.10) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 61-
11. UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares
DUG: +.51 vs Last week: +.32 (High 1.64/ Low -1.45) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 70+
12. Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares
DUST: -.37 vs Last week: +.09 (High .96 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 37-
13. Ultra Short Dow 30 Power Shares
DXD: +.63 vs Last week: +.38 (High 1.68 / Low -1.64) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 77+
14. EAFE Global Equities (Europe, Australasia and Far East)
EFA: -.46 vs Last week: -.30 (High .79 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
15. Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares
ERX: -1.03 vs Last week: -.71 (High 1.55 / Low -2.39) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 43-
16. ProShares UltraShort Euro
EUO: -.15 vs Last week: -.35 (High 1.06 / Low -.94) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 48+
17. Mexico
EWW: -.69 vs Last week: -.38 (High .83 / Low -1.22) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 52-
18. South Korea
EWY: -.62 vs Last week: -.47 (High .69 / Low -1.09) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70-
19. Brazil
EWZ: -.57 vs Last week: -.57 (High 1.00 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 41/
20. South Africa
EZA: -.53 vs Last week: -.38 (High 1.72 / Low -1.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73+
21. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares
FAS: -1.80 vs Last week: -1.36 (High 5.14 / Low -1.80) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 81-
22. Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares
FAZ: +.62 vs Last week: +.44 (High 1.48 / Low -1.61) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 24+
23. Australian Currency Shares
FXA: -.50 vs Last week: -.47 (High .84 / Low -.98) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 34-
24. British Pound Currency Shares
FXB: -.65 vs Last week: -.36 (High .92 / Low -1.00) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 60-
25. Canadian Dollar Currency Shares
FXC: -.43 vs Last week: -.33 (High .81 / Low -1.19) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 9-
26. EURO Currency Shares
FXE: -.57 vs Last week: -.53 (High 1.29 / Low -1.23) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 60-
27. Swiss Franc Currency Shares
FXF: -.56 vs Last week: -.52 (High .65 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 85-
28. FTSE/Xinhua China 25
FXI: -.37 vs Last week: -.31 (High 2.91 / Low -2.27) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 85+
29. ProShares US FTSE/XI
FXP: +.38 vs Last week: +.37 (High 3.04 / Low -4.34) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 5-
30. Swedish Krona Currency Shares
FXS: -.85 vs Last week: -.38 (High .63 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 43+
31. Japanese Yen Currency Shares
FXY: +.19 vs Last week: +.23 (High .96 / Low -.97) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 4-
32. Gold Miners
GDX: +.01 vs Last week: -.16 (High .80 / Low -.97) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 46+
33. SPDR Gold Trust
GLD: -.03 vs Last week: -.34 (High 1.37 / Low -1.26) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 100+
34. High Yield Corporate Bonds
HYG: -.64 vs Last week: -.47 (High .80 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
35. Nasdaq Biotechnology
IBB: -.20 vs Last week: +.14 (High 1.13 / Low -1.11) Rating: SELL-
Demand Factor: 90-
36. InterContinental Exchange
ICE: -.59 vs Last week: -.31 (High 1.82 /Low -2.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 69-
37. Cohen & Steers Realty Majors
ICF: -.35 vs Last week: -.09 (High 1.00 / Low -1.60) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 90+
38. S&P Europe 350
IEV: -.39 vs Last week: -.31 (High .84 / Low -2.42) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 82/
39. S&P Latin America 40
ILF: -.51 vs Last week: -.50 (High 2.68 / Low -9.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 60/
40. Russell 1000 Index
IWB: -.59 vs Last week: -.41 (High 1.77 / Low -1.30 Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70-
41. Transportation
IYT: -.64 vs Last week: -.37 (High 1.01 / Low -1.32) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 61-
42. Copper Total Return Sub-Index
JJC: -.41 vs Last week: -.26 (High .67 / Low -.71) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70-
43. National Money Centers and Leading Regional Banks
KBE: -.34 vs Last week: -.32 (High .87 / Low -.82) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 66-
44. Market Vectors Coal Industry
KOL: -.69 vs Last week: -.58 (High .68 / Low -.99) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
45. Regional Banking Industry Index
KRE: -.20 vs Last week: -.10 (High 1.07/ Low -1.02) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
46. Market Vectors Global Agribusiness
MOO: -.43 vs Last week: -.24 (High .79 / Low -1.29) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 80-
47. Ultra Short Mid-Cap 400 Power Shares
MZZ: +.40 vs Last week: +.27 (High 2.77 / Low -1.96) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 25+
48. SPDR 100 Index
OEF: -.61 vs Last week: -.34 (High .64 / Low -1.29) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 13-
49. Oil Services
OIH: -.46 vs Last week: -.30 (High 2.43 /Low -3.86) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 35-
50. Aerospace & Defense
PPA: -.28 vs Last week: -.24 (High .93 / Low -1.14) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 57-
51. Ultra Short QQQ Power Shares
QID: +.48 vs Last week: +.34 (High 1.86 / Low -1.36) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 31+
52. Ultra QQQ ProShares
QLD: -.67 vs Last week: -.51 (High 1.14 / Low -1.92) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
53. Russia
RSX: -.41 vs Last week: -.46 (High .61 / Low -.77) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 74+
54. DJ Wilshire REIT
RWR: -.45 vs Last week: -.22 (High .97 / Low -1.43) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 69-
55. UltraShort S&P 500 Power Shares
SDS: +.36 vs Last week: +.21 (High 2.23 / Low: -2.14) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 28+
56. UltraShort Financials ProShares
SKF: +.76 vs Last week: +.55 (High .76 / Low -1.14) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 19+
57. Semiconductor Holders Trust
SMH: -.34 vs Last week: -.20 (High .60 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 27-
58. UltraShort Real Estate ProShares
SRS: +.39 vs Last week: +.13 (High 5.25 / Low -3.10) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 26+
59. Ultra S&P 500 ProShares
SSO: -.66 vs Last week: -.45 (High 2.23 / Low: -2.41) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70-
60. Barclays Long 20+ Year Treasury Bonds
TLT: +.87 vs Last week: +.49 (High .94 / Low -.61) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 97+
61. Barclays Short 20+ Year Treasury Bonds
TBF: -.59 vs Last week: -.46 (High 1.04 / Low -.83) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
62. Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares
TNA: -.88 vs Last week: -.59 (High 1.21 / Low -2.54) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 69-
63. UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares
TWM: +.41 vs Last week: +.21 (High 1.17 / Low -1.12) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 25+
64. CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Short-Term Futures
VXX: +.44 vs Last week: +.26 (High 2.23 / Low: -2.41) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 28+
65. CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Mid-Term Futures
VXZ: +.64 vs Last week: +.35 (High .64 / Low -.98) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 58+
66. Biotech S&P Select Sector
XBI: -.0 vs Last week: +.20 (High 1.29 / Low -1.11) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 96-
67. Oil & Gas Equipment & Services S&P Select Sector
XES: -.52 vs Last week: -.39 (High .91 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
68. Homebuilders S&P Select Sector
XHB: -.17 vs Last week: +.01 (High .69 / Low -.56) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 87-
69. Materials S&P Select Sector
XLB: -.39 vs Last week: -.27 (High .66 / Low -.67) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 28-
70. Energy S&P Select Sector
XLE: -.62 vs Last week: -.40 (High .84 / Low -1.31) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 33-
71. Financial S&P Select Sector
XLF: -.36 vs Last week: -.27 (High .47 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 62-
72. Industrial S&P Select Sector
XLI: -.37 vs Last week: -.22 (High .57 / Low -.61) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 62-
73. Technology S&P Select Sector
XLK: -.42 vs Last week: -.37 (High .66 / Low -.42) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 49-
74. Consumer Staples S&P Select Sector
XLP: -.21 vs Last week: -.07 (High .59 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 76-
75. Utilities S&P Select Sector
XLU: -.06 vs Last week: +.03 (High .78 / Low -1.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 90/
76. Healthcare S&P Select Sector
XLV: -.24 vs Last week: -.06 (High .57 / Low -.44) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70-
77. Consumer Discretionary S&P Select Sector
XLY: -.42 vs Last week: -.26 (High .59 / Low -.58) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 54-
78. Mining & Metals S&P Select Sector
XME: -.56 vs Last week: -.53 (High .98 / Low -1.45) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 12-
79. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production S&P Select Sector
XOP: -.64 vs Last week: -.45 (High .83 / Low -1.01) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 12-
80. Retail S&P Select Sector
XRT: -.45 vs Last week: -.30 (High .91 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 64-

80 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) & Foreign Currencies tracked: (Historic: High 90% 5-15-09 & 9-18-09 / Low 5% 10-31-08)

This Week ETF Rating Results: Fell, Buy 16 / Sell 64 (20%) vs. Last week: Rose, Buy 20 / Sell 61 (25%) vs. Prior week: Fell, Buy 18 / Sell 58 (22%).

Subscribe today to www.MktMetrics.com to track what the Exchange Insiders (Specialists and Market Makers) are currently doing with their inventory for any stock or ETF. Make better investment decisions with the latest Pattern Recognition Algorithmic Trading Technology created especially for Portfolio Mangers, Hedge Funds and Active Traders. It's a great second opinion and trading tool, check it out for free and see.

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Total number of Blogs archived: 4,379 since May 2005

Friday, June 01, 2012

Exchanged Traded Fund DIA Friday Forecast








Below is an example of the MktMetrics program using DIA ETF current information. Our pattern recognition algorithmic trading program forecasts the 1,000 most actively traded stocks, ETFs and currencies, posted by 8:00pm ET, the night before next day's trading. Get a "Forever FREE" subscription to www.MktMetrics.com and begin to improved your trading results today! (No credit card required, it's now "Forever FREE!")

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Details for DIA Diamonds (Dow 30 Exchange Traded Fund)

Today's Date: 06/01/12
Last Updated: 05/31/12

05/31/12 Final Numbers
(Open) 124.00
(High) 124.74
(Low) 123.01
(Close) 123.70
(Range) 1.73

DIA Friday Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 123.87
Today's Predicted High: 124.43
Today's Predicted Low: 122.98
Today's Proposed Range: 1.45
Buy/Sell Rating: Sell

Five Considerations (Today vs. Yesterday)
Price Internal Strength: Negative 20 Down from 23
Volume Internal Strength: Positive 1.20/1.10 Up
Current Trend: Negative -57 Down from -49
Demand Factor: 65 Down from 68
Stock Volatility: 2.29 Up from -0.39

Predict DIA Upside and Downside Potential
05/31/12 12:45 Close: 124.03
Upside Potential: 124.99
Downside Potential: 122.09

Extreme Trading Conditions: Levels 1-4

Predicted Block Trading Resistance Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 125.47
2. 126.17
3. 126.48
4. 127.23

Predicted Block Trading Support Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 122.25
2. 121.52
3. 121.23
4. 120.55

DIA 8-KEY MOVING AVERAGES
8 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 124.63
21 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 126.79
30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 127.99
42 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.49
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.92
65 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.21
30 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE = 125.59
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 122.32

Nightly Analysis Update
DJIA Probability of Being Up Friday: 55%
DJIA Trend: Falling 16%
DJIA Momentum: Falling 29%
DJIA Outlook: Bearish 24% Falling
Stock Market Outlook: Bearish 36.8% Falling

Good luck and good trading today!

This Week's Key Calendar Earnings and Economic Events:

Friday
•While there are no major earnings reports on today's docket, the shortened week winds down on a busy note. Most notably, Wall Street will digest the Labor Department's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls figures for May. The ISM manufacturing index, as well as reports on personal income and spending, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales, are also scheduled for release.

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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Friday June 1, 2012



Corporate Logo:
Dow 30 (Diamonds-DIA) controls the direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (Spider-SPY)



Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com

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Thursday 5-31-12 DJIA Closed: 12393.45 -26.41 vs. 12419.86 -160.83 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12694.50 -42.19 vs. 12736.69 -37.79 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -2.37% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -2.49% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)

Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning

Friday June 1, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."

MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Friday: 55%
DJIA Past 55 weeks: 54 Fridays, 44% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: June 1 has been "Up" 54% of the time.

DJIA Trend "Change" to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)

DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Current 65 vs. 68 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)

Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)

Dow 30 + DIA: Unch 5 Up vs. 26 Down (+0 vs. +1 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 124.63U vs. 21-day 126.79D Spread= -2.16 vs. Prior -2.63 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Current 16% vs Prior 19% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11)
DJIA Linear Regression: Current 1.14 vs. Prior 1.13 (Historic: High +1.11 5-25-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Unch 29% vs. Prior 29% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Current 1.3% vs. Prior 0.7% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 49 vs. Prior day 58 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 17 vs. Prior day 19 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 58 vs. Prior day 63 (High 100 / Low 0)

DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -731 vs. Prior day -750 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)

DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12736.69 / Intermediate Term 12937.74 / Breakout 13138.80

DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12694.50 / Intermediate Term 12472.35 / Breakdown 12250.20

Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +31 vs. Previous day +25 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: Neutral Current +45 vs. Previous day +37 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish

United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: BEARISH Current -54 vs. Previous day -46 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current -38 vs. Previous day -41 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -65 vs. Previous day -64 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 0.96 vs. Previous day 0.03 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current 2.29 vs. Previous day -0.39 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)

McClellan Oscillator: Current -30.16 vs. -37.51 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94

Summation Index: Current -431.06 vs. -400.89 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)

NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -11.95% vs. Prior -12.36%, Annual ROC +2.34% vs. Prior +2.81% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)

Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -29 vs. Previous day -28 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02

Institutional Money Flow: Unch 16% vs. Previous day 16% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%

Institutional Demand: Current 46% vs. Previous day 47% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%

Institutional Inventory: Unch 33% vs. Previous day 33% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.33% vs. Previous day -0.30% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%

Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Current 24% vs. Previous day 25% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0%

Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 36.8% vs. Previous day 39.3% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)

SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)

SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Fell Current Trend -30 vs. Yesterday -28 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.60 vs. -0.27 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Fell Current Trend -58 vs. Yesterday -51 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Unch -2.36 vs. -2.36 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Fell Current Trend -29 vs. Yesterday -27 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.56 vs. -0.70 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Fell Current Trend -26 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.19 vs. -0.45 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.37)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Rose Current Trend -30 vs. Yesterday -31 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.35 vs. -0.80 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Fell Current Trend -7 vs. Yesterday -2 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +0.10 vs. -0.46 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.07)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Fell Current Trend -7 vs. Yesterday -4 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -0.06 vs. -1.11 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Fell Current Trend -13 vs. Yesterday -8 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.42 vs. -0.95 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Fell Current Trend -25 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.72 vs. -0.06 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 81 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.

Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 52U vs. Previous day 33D (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 47U vs. Previous day 31U (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Unch -.01 vs. Previous day -.01 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.52 vs. Previous day -1.51 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.37 vs. Previous day -1.34 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Unch +35 vs. Previous day +35 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Unch -87 vs. Previous day -87 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)

DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 131.28D, 121.74U (Spread: 9.54) vs. Previous day 132.19D, 121.66D (Spread: 10.53) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.

DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Unch 125.92N vs. 125.92D the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.

DIA ADX 14 "Positive 5-1-12": Current Trend 32.27U vs. Previous day 31.37U (High +25.62 5-21-10 / Low 8.1 9-55-08) The Average Directional Index is an indicator of trend strength in a series of prices of a financial instrument.

DIA ATR 14: Current 1.47 vs. Previous day 1.45 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Thursday's Actual DIA Range: 1.73 vs. 0.87 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)

Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.45 vs. 1.50 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)

DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 0.9 / 30-day: 0.9, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)

Good luck and good trading Friday!

Exchanged Traded Fund DIA Thursday Forecast








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Details for DIA Diamonds (Dow 30 Exchange Traded Fund)

Today's Date: 05/31/12
Last Updated: 05/30/12

05/30/12 Final Numbers
(Open) 124.55
(High) 124.61
(Low) 123.74
(Close) 124.01
(Range) 0.87

DIA Thursday Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 124.20
Today's Predicted High: 124.76
Today's Predicted Low: 123.26
Today's Proposed Range: 1.50
Buy/Sell Rating: Sell (up from strong Sell)

Five Considerations (Today vs. Yesterday)
Price Internal Strength: Negative 23 Down from 28
Volume Internal Strength: Positive 0.80/1.08 Down
Current Trend: Negative -49 Down from -40
Demand Factor: 68 Down from 70
Stock Volatility: -0.39 Down from -0.04

Predict DIA Upside and Downside Potential
05/30/12 12:45 Close: 124.02
Upside Potential: 125.45
Downside Potential: 122.45

Extreme Trading Conditions: Levels 1-4

Predicted Block Trading Resistance Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 126.21
2. 126.49
3. 127.04
4. 127.10

Predicted Block Trading Support Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 122.12
2. 122.06
3. 121.53
4. 121.27

DIA 8-KEY MOVING AVERAGES
8 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 124.58
21 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 127.21
30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.20
42 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.69
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.08
65 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.31
30 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE = 125.55
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 122.28

Nightly Analysis Update
DJIA Probability of Being Up Thursday: 94%
DJIA Trend: Unch 19%
DJIA Momentum: Falling 29%
DJIA Outlook: Bearish 25% Rising
Stock Market Outlook: Bearish 39.3% Falling

Good luck and good trading today!

This Week's Key Calendar Earnings and Economic Events:
"Payrolls Report Punctuates a Holiday-Shortened Week"

Thursday
•Thursday's round-up features the ADP private-sector payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, the latest first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI), and the holiday-delayed weekly crude inventories report. Wall Street can also look forward to earnings reports from Ciena (CIEN), Joy Global (JOY), OmniVision Technologies (OVTI), and Vera Bradley (VRA).

Friday
•While there are no major earnings reports on today's docket, the shortened week winds down on a busy note. Most notably, Wall Street will digest the Labor Department's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls figures for May. The ISM manufacturing index, as well as reports on personal income and spending, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales, are also scheduled for release.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Thursday May 31, 2012



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Dow 30 (Diamonds-DIA) controls the direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (Spider-SPY)



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Wednesday 5-30-12 DJIA Closed: 12419.86 -160.83 vs. 12580.69 +125.86 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12736.69 -37.79 vs. 12774.48 -30.84 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -2.49% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -1.52% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)

Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning

Thursday May 31, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."

MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Thursday: 94%
DJIA Past 55 weeks: 54 Thursdays, 59% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: May 31 has been "Up" 61% of the time.

DJIA Trend "Change" to "Up" from "Down" initiated 5-23-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 5-30-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)

DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Current 68 vs. 70 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)

Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)

Dow 30 + DIA: Current 5 Up vs. 26 Down (+1 vs. -1 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 124.58D vs. 21-day 127.21D Spread= -2.63 vs. Prior -2.93 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Unch 19% vs Prior 19% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11) (This indicator turned "UP" on 5-23-12 and is a trading "BUY")
DJIA Linear Regression: Current 1.13 vs. Prior 1.12 (Historic: High +1.11 5-25-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Current 29% vs. Prior 32% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Unch 0.7% vs. Prior 0.7% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 58 vs. Prior day 73 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 19 vs. Prior day 22 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 63 vs. Prior day 100 (High 100 / Low 0)

DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -750 vs. Prior day -658 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)

DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12774.48 / Intermediate Term 12978.49 / Breakout 13182.50

DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12736.69 / Intermediate Term 12513.79 / Breakdown 12290.90

Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +25 vs. Previous day +20 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: Neutral Current +37 vs. Previous day +28 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish

United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: Neutral Current -46 vs. Previous day -35 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current -41 vs. Previous day -44 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -64 vs. Previous day -52 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 0.03 vs. Previous day 0.44 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current -0.39 vs. Previous day -0.04 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)

McClellan Oscillator: Current -37.51 vs. +77.87 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94

Summation Index: Current -400.89 vs. -363.39 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)

NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -12.36% vs. Prior -14.01%, Annual ROC +2.81% vs. Prior +4.80% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)

Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -28 vs. Previous day -25 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02

Institutional Money Flow: Current 16% vs. Previous day 13% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%

Institutional Demand: Current 47% vs. Previous day 50% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%

Institutional Inventory: Current 33% vs. Previous day 36% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.30% vs. Previous day -0.24% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%

Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Current 25% vs. Previous day 24% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0%

Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 39.3% vs. Previous day 45.7% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)

SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)

SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Fell Current Trend -28 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.27 vs. +1.25 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Fell Current Trend -51 vs. Yesterday -34 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.36 vs. +0.31 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Fell Current Trend -27 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.70 vs. +1.22 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Fell Current Trend -24 vs. Yesterday -20 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.45 vs. +1.54 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.37)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Rose Current Trend -31 vs. Yesterday -35 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.80 vs. +0.14 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Fell Current Trend -2 vs. Yesterday -0 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.46 vs. +0.31 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.07)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Fell Current Trend -4 vs. Yesterday +1 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.11 vs. +0.31 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Fell Current Trend -8 vs. Yesterday -6 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.95 vs. -0.09 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Fell Current Trend -24 vs. Yesterday -23 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -0.06 vs. +2.16 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 81 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.

Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 33D vs. Previous day 54U (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 31U vs. Previous day 16U (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Current -.01 vs. Previous day +.14 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.51 vs. Previous day -1.46 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.34 vs. Previous day -1.30 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Current +35 vs. Previous day +41 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Current -87 vs. Previous day -53 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)

DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 132.19D, 121.66D (Spread: 10.53) vs. Previous day 132.95D, 121.78U (Spread: 11.17) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.

DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Current 125.92D vs. 126.19D the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.

DIA ADX 14 "Positive 5-1-12": Current Trend 31.37U vs. Previous day 30.72D (High +25.62 5-21-10 / Low 8.1 9-55-08) The Average Directional Index is an indicator of trend strength in a series of prices of a financial instrument.

DIA ATR 14: Current 1.45 vs. Previous day 1.41 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Wednesday's Actual DIA Range: 0.87 vs. 1.02 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)

Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.50 vs. 1.55 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)

DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 0.7 / 30-day: 0.9, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)

Good luck and good trading Thursday!

Exchanged Traded Fund DIA Wednesday Forecast








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Details for DIA Diamonds (Dow 30 Exchange Traded Fund)

Today's Date: 05/30/12
Last Updated: 05/29/12

05/29/12 Final Numbers
(Open) 125.27
(High) 125.92
(Low) 124.90
(Close) 125.60
(Range) 1.02

DIA Wednesday Forecast
Opening Fair Value: 125.42
Today's Predicted High: 126.38
Today's Predicted Low: 124.83
Today's Proposed Range: 1.55
Buy/Sell Rating: Strong Sell (down from sell)

Five Considerations (Today vs. Yesterday)
Price Internal Strength: Negative 28 Up from 23
Volume Internal Strength: Negative 1.10/1.00 Up
Current Trend: Negative -40 Up from -49
Demand Factor: 70 Up from 69
Stock Volatility: -0.04 Down from 0.57

Predict DIA Upside and Downside Potential
05/29/12 12:45 Close: 125.10
Upside Potential: 127.39
Downside Potential: 124.29

Extreme Trading Conditions: Levels 1-4

Predicted Block Trading Resistance Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 127.40
2. 127.78
3. 128.11
4. 128.44

Predicted Block Trading Support Levels (100,000+ shares)
1. 123.40
2. 123.09
3. 122.76
4. 122.40

DIA 8-KEY MOVING AVERAGES
8 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 124.65
21 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 127.58
30 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.43
42 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 128.86
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.24
65 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 129.39
30 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE = 125.51
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE = 122.22

Nightly Analysis Update
DJIA Probability of Being Up Wednesday: 10%
DJIA Trend: Rising 19%
DJIA Momentum: Falling 32%
DJIA Outlook: Bearish 24% Falling
Stock Market Outlook: Bearish 45.7% Rising

Good luck and good trading today!

This Week's Key Calendar Earnings and Economic Events:
"Payrolls Report Punctuates a Holiday-Shortened Week"

Wednesday
•The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index hits the Street on Wednesday. Companies slated to post earnings include Coldwater Creek (CWTR), Fresh Market (TFM), Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), TiVo (TIVO), and Yingli Green Energy (YGE).

Thursday
•Thursday's round-up features the ADP private-sector payrolls report, weekly jobless claims, the latest first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI), and the holiday-delayed weekly crude inventories report. Wall Street can also look forward to earnings reports from Ciena (CIEN), Joy Global (JOY), OmniVision Technologies (OVTI), and Vera Bradley (VRA).

Friday
•While there are no major earnings reports on today's docket, the shortened week winds down on a busy note. Most notably, Wall Street will digest the Labor Department's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls figures for May. The ISM manufacturing index, as well as reports on personal income and spending, construction spending, and motor vehicle sales, are also scheduled for release.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Wednesday May 30, 2012



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Dow 30 (Diamonds-DIA) controls the direction of the SPDR S&P 500 (Spider-SPY)



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Tuesday 5-29-12 DJIA Closed: 12580.69 +125.86 vs. 12454.83 -74.92 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12774.48 -30.84 vs. 12805.32 -35.71 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -1.52% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -2.74% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)

Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning

Wednesday May 30, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."

MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Wednesday: 10%
DJIA Past 55 weeks: 55 Wednesdays, 49% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: May 30 has been "Up" 56% of the time.

DJIA Trend "Change" to "Up" from "Down" initiated 5-23-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-7-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)

DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Current 70 vs. 69 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)

Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)

Dow 30 + DIA: Current 4 Up vs. 27 Down (-1 vs. -2 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 124.65D vs. 21-day 127.58D Spread= -2.93 vs. Prior -3.16 turned "Up" 5-24 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Current 19% vs Prior 16% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11) (This indicator turned "UP" on 5-23-12 and is a trading "BUY")
DJIA Linear Regression: Current 1.12 vs. Prior 1.11 (Historic: High +1.11 5-25-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Unch#4 32% vs. Prior 32% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Current 0.7% vs. Prior 0.5% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 73 vs. Prior day 66 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 22 vs. Prior day 19 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 100 vs. Prior day 53 (High 100 / Low 0)

DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -658 vs. Prior day -778 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)

DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12805.32 / Intermediate Term 13013.46 / Breakout 13221.60

DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12774.48 / Intermediate Term 12550.94 / Breakdown 12327.40

Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +20 vs. Previous day +26 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: Neutral Current +28 vs. Previous day +35 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish

United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: Neutral Current -35 vs. Previous day -34 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current -44 vs. Previous day -34 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -52 vs. Previous day -53 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish

DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 0.44 vs. Previous day 0.47 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current 0.36 vs. Previous day 0.57 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)

McClellan Oscillator: Current +77.87 vs. -20.40 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94

Summation Index: Current -363.39 vs. -441.26 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)

NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -14.01% vs. Prior -13.53%, Annual ROC +4.80% vs. Prior +4.12% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)

Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -25 vs. Previous day -26 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02

Institutional Money Flow: Current 13% vs. Previous day 16% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%

Institutional Demand: Current 50% vs. Previous day 48% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%

Institutional Inventory: Current 36% vs. Previous day 33% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%

Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.24% vs. Previous day -0.29% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%

Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)

DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Unch#3 24% vs. Previous day 24% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0% "This indicator turned Down on 5-7-12, wait for it to reverse direction."

Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 45.7% vs. Previous day 40.3% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined) ("Never a good sign when this indicator breaks below 80%, as it did 4-5-12, but turned 'Up' on 5-21-12.")

SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)

SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Rose Current Trend -24 vs. Yesterday -27 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +1.25 vs. -0.55 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Rose Current Trend -34 vs. Yesterday -40 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +0.31 vs. -1.17 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Rose Current Trend -24 vs. Yesterday -27 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +1.22 vs. -0.46 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Rose Current Trend -20 vs. Yesterday -22 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +1.54 vs. +0.16 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.37)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Rose Current Trend -35 vs. Yesterday -37 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +0.14 vs. -1.22 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Rose Current Trend -0 vs. Yesterday -7 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +0.31 vs. -0.12 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.07)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Fell Current Trend +1 vs. Yesterday +3 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +0.31 vs. +0.24 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Unch Current Trend -6 vs. Yesterday -6 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -0.09 vs. -0.40 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Rose Current Trend -23 vs. Yesterday -26 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose +2.16 vs. +0.84 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 81 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.

Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 54U vs. Previous day 40D (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 16U vs. Previous day 13D (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Current +.14 vs. Previous day -.01 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.46 vs. Previous day -1.57 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.30 vs. Previous day -1.32 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Current +41 vs. Previous day +32 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Current -53 vs. Previous day -79 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)

DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 132.95D, 121.78U (Spread: 11.17) vs. Previous day 133.01D, 121.58D (Spread: 11.43) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.

DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Unch 126.19N vs. 126.19D the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.

DIA ADX 14 "Positive 5-1-12": Current Trend 30.72D vs. Previous day 31.59U (High +25.62 5-21-10 / Low 8.1 9-55-08) The Average Directional Index is an indicator of trend strength in a series of prices of a financial instrument.

DIA ATR 14: Current 1.41 vs. Previous day 1.38 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Tuesday's Actual DIA Range: 1.02 vs. 1.13 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)

Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.55 vs. 1.41 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)

DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 0.9 / 30-day: 0.9, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)

Good luck and good trading Wednesday!