Stock Market Forecast & Analysis Tuesday June 5, 2012

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Monday 6-4-12 DJIA Closed: 12101.46 -17.11 vs. 12118.57 -274.88 the previous day
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 12587.11 -52.63 vs. 12639.74 -54.76 the previous day
DJIA Closed: -3.86% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. -4.12% the previous day (Historic High Above: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Historic Low Below: -26.03% 5-7-10)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Opens- Tomorrow Morning
Tuesday June 5, 2012 "Stock Market Forecast."
MktMetrics DJIA Probability of being "Up" Tuesday: 32%
DJIA Past 51 weeks: 51 Tuesdays, 61% have been Up-on-the-day."
DJIA Past 50 years: June 5th has been "Up" 52% of the time.
DJIA Trend "Change" to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 5-31-12
(DJIA Trend is more volatile, often a forerunner to the DJIA Outlook.)
DIA Rating Change to "SELL" from "BUY" initiated 5-2-12
DIA Demand Factor: Unch 53 vs. 53 Prior day (Historic: High 100 / Low 0)
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Unch#3 5 Up vs. 26 Down (+0 vs. +0 Prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: "SELL" 5-7-12 8-day 123.65D vs. 21-day 125.72D Spread= -2.07 vs. Prior -2.09 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -7.14 8-15-11)
DJIA Trend: Unch 13% vs Prior 13% (High 100% 10-31-11 & 3-31-09 / Low 0% 8-11-11)
DJIA Linear Regression: Unch 1.15 vs. Prior 1.15 (Historic: High +1.15 6-1-12 / Low -.478 4-9-09) ("BUY" turned 'UP' 5-23-12)
DJIA Price Momentum: Unch 23% vs. Prior 23% (High 100% 2-22-12 / Low 3% 8-19-11, 3-6-09, 10-22-08)
DJIA Volume/50 Volume: Current 0.8% vs. Prior 0.9% (High 5.0% 5-17-12, 4.7% 4-11-12, 4.2% 5-10-12, 4.8% 3-21-09 / Low: -0.6% 3-8-09
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic d%: Current 15 vs. Prior day 21 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic d%: Current 8 vs. Prior day 9 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Stochastic RSI: Current 10 vs. Prior day 12 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Current -979 vs. Prior day -928 (Historic: High +1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881 3-10-08)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 12639.74 / Intermediate Term 12833.72 / Breakout 13027.70
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 12587.11 / Intermediate Term 12366.85 / Breakdown 12146.60
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
CBOE S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXX: Neutral Current +33 vs. Previous day +44 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -92 1-27-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish
CBOE S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN ("Inverse Fear Index")
VXZ: BULLISH Current +62 vs. Previous day +64 (High 143 11-30-10 / Low -98 4-4-12) Definition: greater than +.50% Bullish / less than -.50% Bearish
United States Oil ETF (derived from the spot price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) light, sweet crude oil)
USO: Neutral Current -43 vs. Previous day -58 (High 133 12-13-10 / Low - 128 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (Commodities Precious Metals)
GLD: Neutral Current +6 vs. Previous day -3 (High 137 12-13-10 / Low -126 3-24-11) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish
Currency Shares Euro ETN (Seeks to reflect the price of the Euro)
FXE: BEARISH Current -51 vs. Previous day -57 (High 143 12-3-11 / Low -92 3-27-10) Definition: greater than +50% Bullish / less than -50% Bearish
DJIA VOLATILITY: Current 1.07 vs. Previous day 1.44 (Historic: High 9.80 10-10-08 / Low -3.80 5-13-10)
DIA VOLATILITY: Current 1.25 vs. Previous day 2.27 (Historic: High 5.12 11-18-11 / Low -3.80 5-13-10) (Negative Volatility may result in an extreme volatile day, Up or Down, the next trading session.)
McClellan Oscillator: Current -125.49 vs. -127.93 the Previous day (High 300.19 7-26-11 / Low -438.08 8-8-11) Mean= -68.94
Summation Index: Current -684.48 vs. -558.99 the Previous day (High 5599.98 9-22-09 / Low -4699.43 11-20-08) Mean= 450.28 ("Bull Market Breakout" =>+2500.00 / "Bear Market Breakdown" =<-2500.00) (Dropped from "Breakout" mode 4-9-12, went negative on 5-21-12)
NYSE Composite Cumulative Unadjusted Up-Vol. minus Down-Vol: "SELL" 5-10-12 Current ROC -10.50% vs. Prior -10.13%, Annual ROC +0.42% vs. Prior +0.75% (High: 52.18% / Low: -23.24% 1-27-12)(ROC Overbought =>+25)/(ROC Oversold =<-25)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Current -32 vs. Previous day -34 (High 43 7-19-11 / Low -46 12-19-11) Mean= -02
Institutional Money Flow: Unch#3 16% vs. Previous day 16% (High 100% 11-1-11 7-28-09 / Low 0% 3-9-09/7-6-10/8-8&9-11) Mean= 50%
Institutional Demand: Current 40% vs. Previous day 39% (High 89% 7-28-09 / Low 6% 11-20-08 Mean= 47%
Institutional Inventory: Current 24% vs. Previous day 25% (High 85% 7-27-09 / Low 6% 10-10-08) Mean= 46%
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Current -0.41% vs. Previous day -0.44% (High +.52% 8-10-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21%
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High / Low)
DJIA Outlook: BEARISH Current 22% vs. Previous day 23% (High 96% 7-28-09 / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 49.0%
Stock Market Outlook: BEARISH Current 28.9% vs. Previous day 29.3% (High 100% 8-21&9-16-09, 2-11-11) / (Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.7% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
SPDR Select Sectors ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High / Low)
SPDR Materials Select Sector
XLB: Rose Current Trend -30 vs. Yesterday -39 (High 66 / Low -67) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.10 vs. -2.06 the previous day) (High +2.19 / Low -7.50)
SPDR Energy Select Sector
XLE: Rose Current Trend -53 vs. Yesterday -62 (High 82 / Low -131) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.34 vs. -4.22 the previous day) (High +0.98 / Low -6.53)
SPDR Financial Select Sector
XLF: Fell Current Trend -37 vs. Yesterday -36 (High 50 / Low -59) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -3.43 vs. -1.70 the previous day) (High +1.22 / Low -8.11)
SPDR Industrial Select Sector
XLI: Unch Current Trend -37 vs. Yesterday -37 (High 57 / Low -61) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.50 vs. -3.51 the previous day) (High +2.23 / Low -4.50)
SPDR Technology Select Sector
XLK: Rose Current Trend -34 vs. Yesterday -42 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -2.96 vs. -3.17 the previous day) (High +0.66 / Low -4.80)
SPDR Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: Rose Current Trend -18 vs. Yesterday -21 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -2.07 vs. -2.15 the previous day) (High +0.76 / Low -2.15)
SPDR Utilities Select Sector
XLU: Rose Current Trend +2 vs. Yesterday -6 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -1.35 vs. -1.28 the previous day) (High +1.06 / Low -2.94)
SPDR Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: Rose Current Trend -19 vs. Yesterday -24 (High 57 / Low -44) (5-Day Close Performance % Rose -2.59 vs. -2.68 the previous day) (High +1.16 / Low -2.77)
SPDR Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: Rose Current Trend -35 vs. Yesterday -42 (High 66 / Low -37) (5-Day Close Performance % Fell -4.05 vs. -3.98 the previous day) (High +2.16 / Low -4.33)
MktMetrics tracks the 80 Most Active Exchange Traded Funds and Currencies for Subscribers, posted nightly before 8:00pm ET, for next day's trading review.
Stock Market Plurality: Daily short-term overbought/oversold momentum indicators, look for extremes either way within the following information provided.
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stocks and ETFs Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Current 31U vs. Previous day 16D (High 494 12-3-10) & (High 546 9-16-09 / Low 0 11-20-08)
Demand Factor "0": Current 61D vs. Previous day 78U (High 511 8-8-11) & (Low 0 8-21-09)
DJIA 6-day M/A Inverted Breadth Index: Current -.21 vs. Previous day -.20 (High: 13.49 8-15-11 / Low -1.98 7-19-11 & -1.94 11-28-11)
DIA MACD: "SELL" 5-7-12 Current -1.91 vs. Previous day -1.74 (High: 2.22 10-28-11 / Low -3.60 8-11-11)
DIA Signal Line: Current -1.54 vs. Previous day -1.45 (High 1.47 2-2-12 / Low -2.96 8-23-11) (Compare MACD to Signal Line for crossover buy/sell signals.)
DIA Relative Strength 14-Day: Unch +27 vs. Previous day +27 (High 100 3-19-10 / Low 0 7-6-10 & 8-10-11) (Overbought =75) / (Oversold =25)
DIA Commodity Channel Index: Current -162 vs. Previous day -151 (High 306 11-4-10 / Low -318 5-6-10) (Note: When the CCI => +200 or =< -200, it represents an overbought or oversold situation, respectively.)
DIA Bolinger Bands 20-Day, 2%, 2%: Current 130.31D, 120.69D (Spread: 9.62) vs. Previous day 130.66D, 121.27D (Spread: 9.39) (High: 12.09 5-23-12 / Low: 5.32 4-26-12) Bollinger Bands by John Bollinger are used to measure the highness (upper band) or lowness (lower band) of the price relative to previous trades.
DIA Parabolic SAR (SAR- 'stop & reverse'): Current 124.75D vs. 125.49D the Previous day (High 226 11-24-10 / Low -218 5-18-10) (Criteria: Long DIA, .02%, .20%) (Note: A parabola below the price is generally bullish (ascending "4-25-12"), while a parabola above is generally bearish (declining "5-8-12"). The indicator generally works well in trending markets, but provides "whipsaws" during non-trending, sideways phases; ergo, establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the Average Directional Index, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend.
DIA ATR 14: Current 1.53 vs. Previous day 1.56 (High +3.56 5-6-10 / Low -.87 4-15-10) (A True Range 14 Period, is often used for a stop-buy/stop-sell consideration from the previous day's Close or, the current trading session's High/Low.) (Monday's Actual DIA Range: 1.09 vs. 1.51 the previous day.) (Historic Range High: 6.71 8-9-11 / Low .53 2-17-12)
Compare the DIA ATR 14 Period daily to the MktMetrics DIA "Proposed Range," Current 1.01 vs. 1.13 the previous day representing MktMetrics DIA ATR 6 Period. (Caveat: When the MktMetrics "Proposed Range" becomes equal to or less than .80, it typically means a large volatility day, the next day, generated from investor complacency, uncertainty or, surprise-event.)
DIA Sentiment: DIA Put/Call Ratio Current 1-day: 1.5 / 30-day: 1.0, (The put/call ratio works well in conjunction with overbought/oversold indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, DIA 14-Day Relative Strength Index and Commodity Channel Index. Definition: A reading 0.80 or below can be very Bullish, a reading 1.20 or above can be very Bearish) (Historic Highs: 5.4 3-23-12, 3.5 4-10-12, 2.5 3-8-12 / Low: 0.60 5-25-12, 0.50 9-16-11)
Good luck and good trading Tuesday!








